ROI Timing Framework™: How Businesses Can Distinguish Real Profit from Misleading Optics
- gaidukovych
- Sep 26
- 3 min read
Updated: Oct 3
When marketers talk about ROI (Return on Investment), they often use a simple calculation: how much money was spent on advertising and how much revenue came back. But in practice, it’s not that straightforward.
Why Traditional ROI Distorts Reality
The standard approach assumes that:
customers purchase immediately after exposure to advertising,
budgets can be paused or redirected instantly,
there is no delayed effect.
In reality, the opposite is often true:
In B2B, SaaS, and healthcare, deals may take months to close.
Budgets are frequently tied up in contracts with penalties for cancellation.
Campaigns continue to generate effects even after they end — clients return, refer others, and carryover revenue builds up.
Ignoring these factors inflates ROI and can mislead decision makers into continuing campaigns that are actually unprofitable.
What Is the ROI Timing Framework
The ROI Timing Framework is a new system of analysis that accounts for:
Lags. Revenue may arrive weeks or months after the campaign.
Commitments. Even if the campaign stops, part of the budget is locked in through contracts.
Stop scenario. Businesses can model what happens if the campaign is halted immediately.
This creates a more accurate picture — one that reflects both current performance and real future outcomes.
Why It Matters Today
In SaaS and B2B, the average sales cycle since COVID has stretched to 2–3 months.
Prepayments and strict contracts are more common.
AI-driven budget allocation systems require accurate metrics — otherwise, they reinforce flawed models.
Investors expect transparency and forecasts that factor in commitments and lags.
An American Example
Starting Point
Jess, a marketing director at a SaaS company in San Francisco, launches a campaign with a $100,000 budget.
$20,000 goes directly to an ad agency (non-refundable).
$10,000 is tied to media contracts with a 50% cancellation penalty.
In total, $25,000 is locked in regardless of performance.
On Paper
After a few months, the campaign generates $190,000 in revenue.
Naïve ROI = (190k – 100k) / 100k = 90%.
It looks like a strong success to show investors.
What the ROI Timing Framework Reveals
With commitments included, effective spend = $125,000.
Adjusted ROI = (190k – 125k) / 125k = 52%.
Instead of a rosy 90%, the campaign is only moderately profitable.
Why Jess Decides to Stop the Campaign
Two months in, market conditions shift:
a competitor launches an aggressive discount,
lead costs rise and efficiency drops,
the CFO asks to reduce burn rate.
Jess runs a stop scenario in the ROI Timing Framework:
Revenue so far: $85,000
Expected carryover after stopping: $40,000
Total revenue: $125,000
Spend to date: $60,000
Canceling now triggers $10,000 in unavoidable costs (minimum spend shortfall and a cancellation fee).
Total unavoidable spend: $70,000
Timing-adjusted ROI = (125k – 70k) / 70k ≈ 79%.
At first glance, 79% looks higher than the 52% adjusted ROI. But the key is trend: as acquisition costs rise and efficiency falls, continuing the campaign would push ROI lower over time.
By halting now, Jess:
locks in a reasonable return,
preserves $30,000 of uncommitted funds,
reallocates them into higher-ROI channels (partnerships, intent-based placements),
and meets the CFO’s cost-reduction target.
Business Takeaways
A naïve ROI calculation creates the illusion of a highly profitable campaign.
The ROI Timing Framework helps businesses:
see the full picture, including locked expenses and delayed revenue,
stop underperforming campaigns before they sink more budget,
preserve capital and reinvest it into stronger-return channels.
It transforms marketing analytics from vanity reporting into a tool for strategic management.
Scientific Foundation
The ROI Timing Framework is the result of multi-year applied research led by David Gaidukovych.
It combines:
econometric modeling of lags and carryover effects,
financial management of contracts and obligations,
strategic scenario planning for campaign stoppages.
This methodology helps businesses distinguish real profitability from overstated performance — and make decisions that stand the test of time.